Tracking looks good for Inception which I have a hard time believing. You can count the number of directors that can open a imovie on one hand, and Chris Nolan isn't one of them. DiCaprio has never been able to open a movie in his life, despite being such a huge name.
Combined with the wonky story, it hardly seems to add up to a blockbuster. Here's why:
Everyone wants Nolan to be JJ Abrams, but he's not. Momento was good, Batman Begins was good, and Dark Knight stunk. That's not what I consider a great track record. To the contrary, I think Nolan more than anything directed a great film written by David Goyer, and has been riding that ever since. Inception wasn't written by Goyer (neither was Dark Knight) which explains why the stories don't really make any sense.
I don't know if it'll bomb -- probably not -- but I feel comfortable saying Inception will underperform this weekend, even with zero competition.
On the other hand, the movie cost $260 million including marketing, so if it isn't a massive box office hit, it's going to make a really big sucking sound. The kind you hear when careers and dreams die.